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Da Boss
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Discussion Starter #1
I thought starting a Coronavirus thread wasn't a bad idea!

My friends and I were just talking about the possibility of nose work trials being cancelled. They don't bring in large crowds like some sports, but we're wondering how schools will like having 60+ strangers going through them with everything going on.

We haven't been stocking up on TP and apparently should have been. Costco, Target and Amazon are out! I was lucky enough to find some at CVS. I went back today and bought another package just to be on the safe side. Who knows how long this will go on!
 

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I think many people aren't taking it seriously enough.

Cases in MN just doubled - we're up to 9.

I highly recommend reading things from Dr. Michael Osterholm.

This is also an excellent post shared by a friend:

"Ok people this is from a friend of mine who is an infection control registered nurse. Please don't panic but be smart... protect yourself and your family. If this becomes such as the state of Italy right now we will consider in the medical field this a mass casualty disaster which means we will reverse triage. When we reverse triage those who come in who's likelihood to survive is low from either age or comorbidities will either be sent home untreated or more than likely will be quarantined and will not be treated at all. In a state of disaster those who are likely to survive will be treated first. Those who are very sick and or dying are not treated at all. You can see a very good example of this in the movie Pearl Harbor.

"So there are two things that make this thing deadly, it's R0 and it's mortality rate. R0 is a measure of how many people are infected per infected person, so for example, a disease with an R0 of 2 means each infected person will on average infect 2 other people. Average transmissability is important too, because there are things called "super spreaders" who infect a TON of people, while most cases are less or not infectious (SARS had this, some people were super infectious, others much less so, which helped limit spread because % of people spreading it was low).

Seasonal flu has an R0 of around 1.3.

Covid's is likely a bit north of 3. I saw 3.8, but estimates range from 1.8 to 4ish. But basically it's more transmisible than the flu. It's also unlikely to be spread via super spreaders just given how worldwide it is; too many people are infectious for it to only a be small % of infected spreading it.

Then you have mortality rate. Mortality rate of seasonal flu is around 0.1%. So if a million people caught the flu, we'd expect about 1,000 deaths.

Covid's was pegged at 3.4%. It might be lower, and probably is because cases inevitably slip through, but anything anywhere near 1% is scary.

Basically, while containment procedures aren't in place, we would expect the number of Covid cases to triple week to week. That's what other countries have seen and we'll likely see it here too.

So the US has roughly 1,000 cases now, right (probably a lot more due to our crappy testing)? If spread triples week to week, we'd have 3K next week, 9K in 2 weeks, 27K in 3 weeks, 81K in a month, 243K in 5 weeks, 729K in 6 weeks, and over 2.1M cases in 7 weeks. If that keeps going, in under 3 months every person who could get it in the US likely would.

Mix that with even a 2% mortality rate, and you see why this is scary.

If 10M get infected with 2% mortality, that 200,000 people dead. If 25M are infected, that's the population of Wyoming, dead.

And it would take only about 9 and a half weeks to reach 25M infected from 1000 infected due to spread.

Further, if the total population mortality rate is 2% or so, imagine how high it is among elderly. Would be like 7-10%. Imagine 10% of the elderly in the USA just dying off in the next 3 months. If we don't stop the spread, it's not impossible.

Hence why everyone is taking this deathly seriously.""
 

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Da Boss
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Discussion Starter #3
I have to admit that I haven't been taking it as seriously as I should. The wake up call for me was the NCAA not allowing fans at the tournament and then the NBA suspending their season. If they're willingly bypassing making millions of dollars, I think that's something to take note of.
 

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For dog events, I know of at least two UKC events that have been cancelled, one in Washington and one in Kentucky.

Local to me, Lamar University will be doing remote classes after next week's spring break. How that will affect my husband's job isn't quite clear. He works at their NPR affiliate radio station, so is fairly isolated from the general university population. The station manager was considering the possibility of working from the transmitter if they aren't allowed on campus.

The school district hasn't said anything about closing yet, but their spring break is next week, as well.

I had already done my usual stock up on toilet paper before the Great TP Panic, because I hate to run out regardless.
 

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I live in Montgomery County Pennsylvania - we are one of 3 counties surrounding Philadelphia. We have over 20 cases in our County as of today. Our Governor just shut the whole county down this afternoon except for grocery stores, gas stations, and medical. I'm good on dog food - thank God!
We already had to cancel our Mediterranean cruise that we scheduled 18 months ago - no matter how you look at it, we are losing money on that. So far Lufthansa airlines has refused to let us reschedule past 2020 - our cruise is rebooked for October of 2021..... I'm still trying!!
My husband and I are thinking of just doing a driving vacation since he already has the time scheduled off..... now I'm not sure!

Also, Mabel is entered in shows Saturday and Sunday..... not going.
 

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Broadway theaters are shuttered until April 12 - this is the longest closure since the stagehand strike in 07.

I had tickets to a show on the 9th, so I'm a little salty, but I know why they've done it. I feel horrible for the actors and crew, though. That's their livelihood.
 

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In more dog event news, I just saw where there have been nine AKC events cancelled so far.

Well, one was cancelled because the grounds were flooded.
 

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Da Boss
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Discussion Starter #9
I feel horrible for the actors and crew, though. That's their livelihood.
That is definitely a hard thing! Wanting to be safe, but people still need to make a living.
I saw that a few of the major hotels in Vegas are laying folks off.
Mark Cuban is working on a plan to help out the employees who are paid an hourly wage. I sure hope more companies follow suit.
 

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Broadway theaters are shuttered until April 12 - this is the longest closure since the stagehand strike in 07.

I had tickets to a show on the 9th, so I'm a little salty, but I know why they've done it. I feel horrible for the actors and crew, though. That's their livelihood.
There was a Broadway usher that tested positive for the virus. Between that and the advisory to avoid crowds, it's clearly the right thing to do. But yes, it's hard economically, especially for lower paid workers. I am really hoping there will be more companies and more government intervention all around for workers affected by this.

In more dog event news, I just saw where there have been nine AKC events cancelled so far.

Well, one was cancelled because the grounds were flooded.
I'm debating on whether to even send in entries on some scentwork events for AKC trials, even though they are several months out. I think we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg.

That is definitely a hard thing! Wanting to be safe, but people still need to make a living.
I saw that a few of the major hotels in Vegas are laying folks off.
Mark Cuban is working on a plan to help out the employees who are paid an hourly wage. I sure hope more companies follow suit.
There are several companies that have stepped up to make moves in the right direction - giving paid leave, etc. I'm pleased to see the moves that have already been made (companies like Starbucks and Google have increased compensation), but we are going to need much more drastic measures.
 

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Mocha
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Cases in TN doubled from 9 this morning to 18 this afternoon. Most of them are in and around Nashville, but considering how many people that live in Clarksville work in Nashville, it's just a matter of time. One of the local elementary schools dismissed classes early today because of a possible/suspected case.

People are starting to panic though; I've been seeing posts on FB about Sam's Club, Kroger, Publix etc. being total madhouses with people buying everything in sight, and things like toilet paper and paper towels are completely sold out. And on the other end of the scale, you have the people who think all of this is completely overblown and there's absolutely nothing to worry about, that it's less serious than the common flu.
 

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First I would like to thank Miss GOOD NEWS from MN :grin2: BTW - I watch the video that she recommended - It scared the holly Be Jesus out of me ! It is Straight talk , and what we need to know !

As far as us - we live 25 East of Indy - Well we live out in the country , The problem is most work at Indy . We always are pretty well stocked up for the winter , being we are 15 to 20 miles from a major store . Things here are just about to hit the panic mode in buying - We did put in one more on-line pickup for can goods - just in case - better to prepare now while the virus is probably at its lowest point it will be in for the fore seeable future .

We will be getting ready for planting season vey soon , seed corn coming in , fertilizer to be spread , fuel , 28% liquid , all brought in by semi tanker loads . How will the virus effect all our supplies that are needed to get this years crops in the ground ?? We have grain to go out and the grain market is taking a real beating .

This has a long way to play out and my friends is really going to get ugly ! Trucking , food product , all this could be affected .

One other wild thing - the farmer population ( farmers ) is like only 1.7 on the US pop. I forget the exact % of us that over 60 , but it is a high percentage .

Everybody be safe !

Doc
 

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I unfortunately have to make a stop at Costco after work - two prescriptions are filled and ready for pick up, and they are not things that are optional. I saw someone local posted a picture of our Costco around lunchtime and it looked utterly insane there with the lines, so I'm not looking forward to it.
 

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GOT's Kal-Drogo The Horseman (Drogo), TKN, CGC, 7 years; RIP Baron, Miley, Dax, Lonesome, Baron #1
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Thanks MBM for the video. Scary stuff. We live in the middle of nowhere so always have a good supply of stuff (TP included) but had to go out today for prescriptions that now won't be ready until the 20th. Surprisingly, we were at Walmart at 8:30 and not too bad. Always the best time to go there is early morning. TP shelves were empty as were in the Giant and CVS. Weis had a decent supply and a sale. Both stores were realtively calm and not to busy. PetValu was not bad either. Needed canned food for Drogo. He is good on everything else! No trips planned so will just hunker down up her on the hill! Always have lots of stuff to do here at home especially when the warm weather arrives.

Drogo's hoping for the pot of gold to come his way!

 

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In news related to the university not having in-person classes, my son's speech therapy, that was supposed to start on the 23rd, has been pushed back to starting on the 30th. For the time being, anyway.
 

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In terms of the dog world, I just saw the IDC world competition (scheduled in Italy in May) is cancelled. That's the International Dobermann Club Championship.
 

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I hadn't been taking it as seriously as I probably should have until now. New Mexico now has 5 presumptive positive cases, one of which is in the county where I live. I guess they aren't deemed positive until the CDC tests and deems them so, but still it's worrisome. A lot of festivals and shows here in Albuquerque have been cancelled due to the state's public health order that's been issued which prohibits mass gatherings of over 100 people in a single room. I wondered about gyms and stores and such, but it defines mass gatherings as; where people gather in space like auditoriums, stadiums, arenas, conference centers and theaters. Even high school sporting events have been cancelled.

So pretty much all the fun spring stuff I was looking forward to partaking in is off!

Back in my home state of Texas, the ginormous music/media/film festival SXSW was cancelled, as was Houston's Livetock Show and Rodeo. That along with the NBA and MLB's decision to suspend/postpone their seasons was what had me stop casually ignoring this whole coronavirus thing and pay attention!

My husband and I cancelled our cruise :( Our sail date wasn't until July 4, but we figured we'd better be safe than sorry. We were able to get a full refund, so the blow wasn't a financial loss (just a disappointing one).

I'm also seeing some universities are opting to go to strictly online courses after Spring Break, and some have extended Spring Break an extra week. UNM hasn't made any official statement yet, but apparently the professors are telling their students that it may happen (my husband works in the UNM Army Recruiting office). Movie release dates are being pushed back (A Quiet Place 2, Fast and Furious 9).. It's getting crazy. We had planned on doing some New Mexico travel next week during the break. Ride the train to Santa Fe. Go to Meow Wolf. Etc. Now I'm not sure if it's worth the risk!
 

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Hairy Dog, RIP Caesar, Katana, Kip, Capri
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I started getting prepared a couple of weeks ago--every time I went to the store, I picked up some extra stuff--all things that we would normally eat--but I have a pile of supplies in my office, all my prescriptions are renewed, etc.

I just wish that people would stop the backbiting--so and so is awful and everything being done currently is wrong (but is it either overreacting or too far behind?) from both sides. Why are the candidates here just pointing fingers and name calling?
 
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